Andrew Loach

Understanding trends in injury claims - more than math!

Trending procedures for property and casualty insurance involve the application of statistical methods to describe and predict loss statistics, including the frequency and severity of claims.  Understanding and applying appropriate models can be challenging in the presence of numerous interacting factors which change over time, particularly since not all factors are evident, quantified, or predictable.  The frequency of bodily injury claims from automobile insurance in British Columbia will be used to illustrate this case, with an examination of current trends, actuarial considerations, and the results of recent study at ICBC to illuminate key factors underlying a changing trend.