1174 - Trevor Thomson

Exploring Distributions of Time to the First Spot Fire

In wildfire management, spot fire is a term used to indicate the occurrence of an airborne ember igniting a separate fire away from the main wildfire. Under certain environmental and wildfire conditions, a firebrand can cross a fuel break, such as a river or road. As a result, the wildfire progresses over an unreachable location. In this project, we derive distributions of the time to the first spot fire in various situations. We develop a spot fire simulator, and generate realizations from the aforementioned distributions. The research allows us to quantitatively assess the possibility of a spot fire occurrence. This will provide guidance for wildfire control.