1124-Fabian Moya

Statistical Methodology for Profitable Sports Gambling


This project evaluates the performance of betting systems using as many real-life elements as possible. Starting with a gambling record of more than 600 bets that were actually placed at an online sports gambling website, a Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to compare different bet selection strategies and staking plans. The best performing system is identified and its performance is measured taking into account the actual constraints found in online sports gambling; finally, the results are measured with respect to a 40,000 customer database from the same bookmaker where the bets were placed. The results offer compelling evidence that a finely tuned sports betting system involving a solid selection process and optimized staking has the potential to produce large profits with a limited initial bankroll after a relatively short amount of time.

Keywords: Betting systems; Kelly criterion; Monte Carlo simulation; Online gambling; Probability; Statistical analysis.